Aftersales leaders are facing a structural shift, not a temporary downturn. Three converging realities now define the growth agenda:
The largest aftersales growth opportunity today sits in what we call the Retention Gap: the unrealized revenue lost when customers leave just as their value accelerates.
The challenge for leadership is no longer whether retention matters, but whether it is being measured, owned, and acted on at the right level.
For years, aftersales growth relied on a steady inflow of new vehicles entering the parc. When customers left after warranty, they were quietly replaced by the next wave of new car buyers. The retention curve was accepted as inevitable.
That assumption no longer holds. With new car sales under pressure, the installed base - not new acquisition - now determines growth.
The operational implication: You can no longer outgrow churn. Every lost customer matters more than it used to.
Source: Autoflows Labs analysis based on European dealer data, 2021–2024
Aftersales operations are still optimized around volume metrics: bookings, hours sold, bay utilization. These metrics assume demand can be replaced - that when customers leave, the sales department will deliver new ones.
But new car sales are flat. And when fewer new vehicles enter the parc, the equation changes:
This is the structural backdrop to the Retention Gap. The question is no longer "How do we get more cars through the workshop?" but "How do we keep the customers we already have coming back?"
The Retention Gap is the difference between the aftersales revenue you generate today and the revenue you could generate if more existing customers continued to return.
From field research conducted with Nordic and UK dealers between 2021–2024, Autoflows Labs has identified consistent patterns:
This happens because retention compounds. Retained customers return year after year as revenue stacks across the lifecycle.
Losses, on the other hand, accumulate quietly as customers disappear. Each defection represents not one missed visit, but multiple years of future value.
Don´t measure how much you made. Measure how much you lost.
Kasper Lykke Pedersen
Partner & Author, Autoflows Labs
Most aftersales dashboards track output. Very few track what you lost. If you can't answer "How much revenue would we generate at full retention?" then maybe you don't yet see clearly your Retention Gap.
One of the most misunderstood dynamics in aftersales is how customer value changes over time. Aftersales revenue is back-loaded in the vehicle lifecycle:
Years 1–3: Low-value, predictable, often warranty-driven work
Years 4–5: Revenue accelerates (tyres, brakes, batteries, out-of-warranty repairs)
Years 5–7+: Peak revenue years, driven by complex, high-value work
In practical terms, an older car can be worth up to three times more per year than a new one. Once warranty expires, obligation disappears. And this is exactly when customers defect.
Electric vehicles add urgency to retention. EVs have fewer moving parts, require less frequent servicing, and generate lower parts revenue. As the EV parc grows, per-vehicle revenue declines, making every retained customer relationship more valuable.
Meanwhile, the ICE parc is ageing, offering higher per-vehicle revenue potential, but only if you retain those customers through their peak value years. The response is the same in both cases: maximize the lifetime value of every customer you already have.
Put the three realities together:
Aftersales growth now depends on keeping customers longer, precisely as their value accelerates. Customers are most valuable in the years they're most likely to leave.
When asked about retention strategy, many dealerships reference activities - service plans, OEM programs, CRM campaigns, customer apps - rather than outcomes. Each has value. But without a quantified opportunity, a clear target, and real ownership, retention stays tactical.
The problem isn't motivation. Teams care. The problem is broken execution across manual reminders, one-off messages, blind calling, no visibility into who's at risk. As a result:
Customers experience friction: unclear communication, generic reminders, difficulty booking
Employees experience frustration: too much time on admin, not enough time for real customer conversations, effort that doesn't convert to bookings.
Fixing execution solves both. The right customer is invited at the right time with relevant information. Employees work smarter, not harder.
When your team spends three hours calling to get one booking, that's not a people problem but a process problem.
Marc Bauer
Partner, Autoflows Labs
Aftersales Managers who make progress on retention focus on four actions.
Define the revenue you would generate at full retention as a benchmark, then calculate the gap against current performance. Visibility creates urgency, and gives you a number to manage against.
If retention isn't reviewed monthly at management level, it won't improve. Retention cannot live solely in campaigns but in management routines. What gets measured gets managed.
Not all customers are equal. A customer with a 6-year-old vehicle who defects costs you three times more than one with a 2-year-old vehicle. Focus retention efforts on post-warranty vehicles where value is highest and risk is greatest.
Retention improves when communication aligns with the moments customers are most likely to leave, not generic reminders sent to everyone. This requires fixing execution: ensuring the right customer is contacted at the right time, with relevant information, through a process that doesn't burden your team with manual work.
When execution works, dealers are in control. They can deliver the personal, relevant service that builds loyalty, because the system handles the repetitive work, freeing people to do what actually matters.